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п»їSuper Bowl Odds 2021: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Spread, Over/Under Betting Guide.
Featured Columnist February 6, 2021 Comments Comment Bubble Icon.
Super Bowl Odds 2021: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Spread, Over/Under Betting Guide.
NFL fans who enjoy storylines will be in for a treat this Sunday. When the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the field, they'll bring with them one of the most intriguing quarterback matchups in recent memory.
Buccaneers signal-caller Tom Brady will be playing in his 10th Super Bowl and looking for his seventh Lombardi Trophy—at 43 years old. Kansas City's young gunslinger—the 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes—will be playing in his second-consecutive Super Bowl. In only three years as a full-time starter, Mahomes has already won one Lombardi, one Super Bowl MVP and one regular-season MVP.
In many ways, this quarterback matchup is representative of the NFL's past and its future.
There's a lot more history involved in this game than at the quarterback position, though. Kansas City, which has been in the AFC title game three straight years, may be in the beginning stages of the league's next great dynasty. The Buccaneers are back in the big game for the first time since the 2002 season.
Tampa won Super Bowl XXXVII to claim the only Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.
Three will be plenty of star power on the field, too—from defensive playmakers like Shaquil Barrett and Chris Jones to pass-catching phenoms like Chris Godwin and Tyreek Hill. Super Bowl LV could be a shootout, a defensive battle or anything in between—though it landing on one extreme end of the spectrum or the other feels unlikely.
How do the oddsmakers in Las Vegas see it? We'll examine the latest lines and over/unders from DraftKings Sportsbook, along with a close look at the game itself.
Super Bowl LV.
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida.
When: February 7, 2021.
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET.
TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access.
Line and Over/Under: KC -3. 55.5.
Injury Roundup.
Injuries can and often do impact how a game lines up with the lines and over/unders. Therefore, it's worth diving into the final injury report for Super Bowl LV.
The good news is that not many players from the playoff roster have officially been ruled out. The only players officially out are Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay and left tackle Eric Fisher. Of course, the Fisher injury could be huge, as right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6.
This means that the Chiefs will be short-handed trying to slow the Buccaneers pass rush and to protect Mahomes. With players like Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul on Tampa's defensive front, Mahomes may be forced to buy a lot of time in the pocket himself.
Kansas City wideout Sammy Watkins is listed as questionable, as are Buccaneers receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Cameron Brate.
Breakdown.
This game may be decided by Tampa's ability to pressure Mahomes. If the Buccaneers can get to Mahomes as they did Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game—he was sacked five times—Tampa could quickly shift the momentum of this game. Of course, the pass rush is a two-way street, and Brady will have to deal with the likes of Chris Jones when he's on the field.
When the Chiefs and Bucs faced off in the regular season, Brady was only sacked once, but he was also forced into two interceptions. Kansas City won that game 27-24. It's worth noting, though, that the Chiefs got off to a hot start in that game before surviving with a three-point win.
The Buccaneers may get off to a slow start here, as is typical for Brady. In nine previous Super Bowl appearances, Brady's teams have scored a total of three points in the first quarter.
"Hard to explain why or why not that hasn't happened," Brady said, per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk. "I'm sure they're all a lot of individual things, why that's happened or not."
Expect Brady to put a few more points on the board in this one, though, and to help the score creep past the over.
While this may not be a full-on shootout, it's probably not going to be a defensive struggle, either. There will be too much offensive talent on the field—Hill, Travis Kelce, Chris Godwin, Evans, Watkins and Brown are just a few of the notable names—for either of these defenses to completely shut down the opposition. However, a mistake on which a defense can capitalize could decide it.
The mistake-battle seems to favor Mahomes there, as he's thrown just six picks all season, while Brady has thrown 15—postseason included.
While the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills will tell you that kicking field goals alone isn't enough to best either of these teams, a field goal could be the difference here.
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Packers Vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Betting Line, Picks, Predictions For NFC Championship Game 2021.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game . [+] 2021. These teams faced off in Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season, a game that the Bucs won by a 38-10 margin.
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are set to meet Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon in the 2021 NFC Championship Game. It is a thrilling matchup that will pit two of football’s all-time great quarterbacks against one another at the game’s most historic venue, a can’t-miss affair that will determine one of the two participants in Super Bowl LV.
Oddsmakers believe that the Packers have an edge in this contest, installing the home side as a 3.5-point favorite. That line has shifted slightly in recent days after opening with Green Bay laying four to Tampa in the immediate wake of the Divisional Round results. Although the spread has moved in favor of the Bucs, the public has been overwhelmingly supporting the Packers since the NFC Championship first went up on the board and it does not appear that these trends will be changing before the game kicks off on Sunday.
As of Saturday morning, 55% of all wagers and 69% of money bet against the spread is on Green Bay to cover, which indicates that the professional bettors are making a contrarian play on the point spread and Vegas is reacting to those sharp Tampa bets. The 2021 NFC Championship Game total has remained where it started at 51.5 points, although that number is a bit polarizing to the public, evidenced by 77% of tickets (total number of bets) taking the over, but only 55% of the handle (total amount money wagered) on that side.
NFC Championship Game 2021 Schedule And Viewing Guide.
Matchup : No. 1 Green Bay Packers vs No. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Date : Sunday, January 24 Start Time : 3:05 p.m. ET TV : Fox Live Stream : Fox Sports GO Location : Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
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NFC Championship Game 2021 Preview And Prediction.
This is a rematch of a 2020 regular season game, which was played in Tampa back in Week 6 and resulted in a surprising 38-10 victory for the Bucs. Tampa leaned heavily on its rushing attack in the contest, with lead back Ronald Jones II totaling up 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 totes. The defense was also instrumental in the blowout win, picking off Aaron Rodgers—the probable league MVP—twice and limiting him to just 160 yards and no touchdowns on 16-of-35 passing attempts. Tampa’s vaunted front clamped down on Aaron Jones, Green Bay’s top rusher, holding him to a mere 15 yards on 10 carries, although he did find the end zone for the lone Packers touchdown of the contest.
Matt Schneidman tweeted a clip of Rodgers predicting that his Packers would meet Brady and the Bucs again after their Week 6 clash:
Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur isn’t putting much stock in those past results, however, claiming that his squad has improved significantly in the three months since that crushing defeat at Raymond James Stadium (via AP.org):
“I think our team has come a long way from that day, but everything’s just words at this point. You’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to have a great week of preparation and you’ve got to go earn it on the field. So that’ll be our mindset and that’s how we’ll approach it. What’s happened in the past at this point, it really doesn’t matter. It’s about what we do moving forward.”
Although he’s been Green Bay’s No. 1 quarterback since 2008 and led his squad to nine trips to the postseason prior to the 2021 NFL Playoffs, the Packers have never hosted an NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field with Rodgers as their starter until now. Because of the venue, weather could play a role in how both sides approach their scripting for the contest. Conditions in eastern Wisconsin are expected to be somewhat chilly—with temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow on the forecast—but nothing close to the three previous Super Bowl-qualifiers hosted at Lambeau Field. The 1967 NFL Championship is still remembered for being the coldest game in league history, a contest known as the “Ice Bowl” that kicked off at -13 and reached close to -40 with wind chill factored in. The most recent NFC Championship held at Lambeau Field back in 2008 also reached the negatives at kickoff, while the warmest conference title game at the stadium occurred in 1997, which was a brisk five degrees at its start time.
Although the Buccaneers are a warm weather team, quarterback Tom Brady forged a Hall of Fame legacy by winning cold weather games during his two decades under center in New England. His Patriots went 25-4 in contests that were played in temperatures of 29 degrees or cooler, with only one of those losses coming in the postseason. The Bucs haven’t had any experience playing in sub-freezing games this season, which could play a role in how Sunday’s matchup turns out, especially against an opponent well-versed in the forecasted conditions of the 2021 NFC Championship Game. The Packers have shown a propensity to succeed in the cold with Rodgers at the helm, as the quarterback has won 87% of contests that kicked off with below freezing temperatures.
Green Bay was a consistently strong bet during the 2020 NFL season, going 10-6 against the spread—tying them for the second-best cover percentage in football—before starting the playoffs by beating the number with a convincing win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round. The Bucs were also profitable with a 9-7 ATS mark during the regular season, but started the 2021 NFL Playoffs by failing to cover in the Wild Card round as a favorite against Washington. Tampa cashed tickets with an outright win and cover as an underdog last week against the New Orleans Saints, continuing the team’s trend of success as a ‘dog this year. That Divisional Round cover was the third in four games in which the Bucs were getting points this season, a 75% cover rate that ranks them behind just three teams during the 2020 campaign. The Packers represent Tampa’s toughest challenge yet however, especially at Lambeau Field where Green Bay is 8-1 SU on the year. The Buccaneers have traveled well though, going 8-2 SU across their 10 road trips this season.
It would hardly be surprising to see the Packers get off to another hot start in the NFC Championship Game, as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in their regular season matchup with Tampa and no team has scored more consistently on their opening drives than Green Bay has in 2020. Despite facing a deficit quickly, the Bucs were able to rally back in that Week 6 game and eventually pulled away after capitalizing on a pair of rare Rodgers turnovers. It won’t be easy to force the projected MVP into that many errors again with a Super Bowl berth on the line, as Rodgers has been responsible for just 12 total postseason interceptions and has thrown multiple picks just three times in 20 career playoff games. Green Bay carved up the Rams and their No. 1-ranked defense from the start last week and never relinquished that lead largely thanks to mistake-free football, securing a “W” that moved the team to 11-0 SU in turnover-free games this season.
Tampa’s chances of winning the NFC Championship Game go up drastically if the defense can snare an interception or recover a fumble. The Packers were only responsible for an NFL-best 11 giveaways during the 2020 NFL season, but went a mediocre 3-3 in games in which they turned the ball over one or more times. If any defense can force this Green Bay offense into mistakes, it would be this Tampa unit that is coming off a four-takeaway performance in New Orleans, including a trio of uncharacteristic interceptions from Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Brees had only thrown six picks across 390 passing attempts in 12 regular season starts, a 1.5% interception rate that ranked only slightly behind Rodgers’ NFL-best 1% rate—five interceptions on 526 throws in 16 starts—in 2020. The Bucs were also one of only two teams that held Rodgers to less than 200 yards passing during the regular season and the QB’s 45.7% completion rate against them was a whopping 14.3% lower than his second-worst outing this year.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28 – Packers 27.




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