п»їGambling 101: What is an Underdog?
What is Underdog Point Spread Betting?
Players betting on Tennessee, with (-105) juice at FanDuel, receive added value over the (-114) juice posted at DraftKings. Bettors need to wager $105 to earn a $100 profit with the (-105) price while the same return requires a $114 bet with (-114) juice. To be fair, the reverse was true for those backing the Broncos, as the juice on the favorite was lower at DraftKings. Having an account at more than one sportsbook is part of a proper bankroll management plan.
What is Underdog Moneyline Betting?
Underdog Prop and Parlay Betting Options.
Team and player props are often posted with favorites and underdogs. UNDER was a heavy longshot in the 2020 NFL preseason Le’Veon Bell prop option below. Bettors can also create parlay tickets that consist of underdogs only or they can mix in some favorites. Since underdog juice is more expensive on MLB and NHL point spreads, bettors can tie two or more teams together to create better value. SI features underdog wagering, and much more, across a variety of sports.
Why is a Side Tagged With Underdog Odds?
There are many reasons why a team or individual is posted as an underdog. While caliber of talent is the primary reason, bettors need to dig deeper to find the root of a longshot. Current form and injuries, plus venue and scheduling, also have an impact on underdog odds. If a team is getting a star player back from injury, or showing signs of snapping a losing streak, a longshot bet may be the way to go. With proper research – underdog betting can be profitable.
What Is an Underdog in Sports Betting?
Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
In just about any game — professional sports or otherwise — there’s going to be an expected winner and an expected loser. Teams and players rarely have the exact same level of talent, so when, say, the 11th-place Kings have to play the first-place Lakers, we aren’t expecting Sacramento to come away with a win.
And while that may not be the most complicated concept to understand, it’s a fundamental one when it comes to sports betting — the underdog .
What Is an Underdog?
In sports betting, an underdog is a team or player expected to lose a given game or event.
In the example above, the underdog would be the Kings, as they’d be expected to lose against the Lakers, who would be the favorite. And oddsmakers have two ways of quantifying how big an underdog is: the spread and the moneyline.
How Do I Know Who Is the Underdog?
Point Spread Underdog.
The “spread” is the difference between the two teams in play in terms of their expected points to be scored in the game. This allows bettors to make bets on how close a game will be, as opposed to simply betting on the winner and loser.
The greater the spread, the bigger the underdog.
In the case above, the Kings are seen as 11.5-point underdogs against the Lakers. That means that in order for a Kings bet to win, they’d need to lose by no more than 11 points, or win the game outright. If they were to lose by 12 points or more, Sacramento bettors would lose their money.
You’ll notice that both spreads are listed in front of a minus number (-110). That number is simply to denote the vig (tax) taken by the sportsbook. In other words, regardless of which spread you choose to take, you’ll have to risk $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10, etc.).
In some cases, though, the teams will be seen as even matches, and the spread will be zero points (called a pick’em). In such a game, assuming the vig is once again -110 on each side, there is no underdog. If one team’s vig was lower, however (-105 vs. -115, for example), that team would be considered a very slight underdog, as that would mean it would take a $105 bet to win $100, as opposed to a $115 risk for the other side.
Moneyline Underdog.
Reading moneyline odds is very similar to reading the vig, with the only difference being the numbers can be far more distant from even.
In moneyline sports (baseball and hockey are the main American ones), you’re betting on which team will simply win the game, rather than the expected margin of victory.
Sometimes you’ll come across games in which both teams will have a minus sign (-115 vs. -105, for example). In such a game, just like in the pick’em example above, the team listed with a smaller number (-105) is considered the slight underdog.
Should You Bet on Underdogs?
There is no simple answer to this question. If there were, bookmakers would be out of business in a hurry.
Of course, underdogs lose games more often than favorites, but that’s not to say that they necessarily lose more money for bettors than favorites.
In fact, in the NFL, underdogs have covered the spread to the tune of a 2224-2169-135 record (50.6%) since 2003. Because of the vig, that still has resulted in an overall loss of money, but it’s less money lost than would have come from taking every favorite.
On baseball moneylines, underdogs have gone 15,683-21,231 since 2005, but once again, have not lost quite as much money for bettors as favorites have.
Neither of those figures should be taken to suggest that you should only bet underdogs, but rather that the betting market has the game of sports betting pretty well figured out.
New to Sports Betting?
New to sports betting and in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana or West Virginia? Check out BetMGM, which is offering Action Network users a $500 deposit match.
If you’re in Pennsylvania, Iowa or New Hampshire, check out DraftKings.
Top 10 Underdog Payouts in US Sports Betting History.
Are you cheering for the little guy? Lost a bet when the oddsmakers were on your side? Some historical sports betting upsets were totally unpredictable – just like US hockey fans after the historic 1980 Olympic win against the Soviets, you’ll believe in miracles too after reading these top 10 biggest underdog payouts in the history of sports.
10 UFC 193 – Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm (8 to 1)
Prior to UFC 193, Ronda Rousey seemed invincible, having won her last eight title fights. In fact, none of her past three fights lasted longer than 34 seconds. So, on November 14, 2015, the fight community was stunned when Rousey lost her UFC Bantamweight title to former champion boxer and 8-to-1 (according to UFC betting odds) underdog, Holly Holm, knocking her out in the second round with a vicious kick to the neck.
9 Super Bowl III – NYJ vs. Baltimore Colts (10 to 1)
The 1969 Super Bowl III was the first game to officially carry the name “Super Bowl,” but it will forever be remembered for the “Guarantee.” Joe Namath, quarterback of the 18 point underdog team New York Jets, told reporters, “ We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” Joe was right. He led the Jets to a 16-7 victory, stunning everyone in football betting – both football fans and the oddsmakers alike.
8 1990 Heavyweight Championship – Mike Tyson vs. Buster Douglas (42 to 1)
At the time, “Iron” Mike Tyson was considered the “baddest man on the planet” with a record of 37-0 and 33 knock outs. Douglas was a 42 to 1 underdog and considered Tyson’s warm up fight for Evander Holyfield. But no one told Douglas that, and in round 10, he floored Tyson with a monstrous uppercut to become the new heavyweight Champion of the World.
7 Horse Race Betting: Man o’ War vs. Upset (100 to 1)
Man o’ War is considered one of the greatest thoroughbred horses of all time. During his illustrious horse racing career, he won 20 of 21 races and almost a quarter of a million dollars in purses. Who did he lose that one race to, you ask? To the 100 to 1 longshot, appropriately named Upset, in the 1919 Sanford Memorial at Saratoga.
Man o’ War, who beat Upset in their six previous meetings, never lost another race.
6 1969 World Series – Mets vs. Orioles (100 to 1)
It was only the Mets’ eighth season as a team. In their first seven seasons, the baseball underdogs had never finished better than ninth out of 10 teams in the National League. They held the record for the most losses with 120 in 1962.
The Orioles came into the World Series 19 games ahead of second place and sweeping the Championship Series. The Orioles led Game 5 of the ’69 World Series 3-0 but still managed to lose 5-3 and take the sixth position on our list.
5 2008 Super Bowl XLII – Giants vs. Patriots (100 to 1)
One of the biggest underdogs in Super Bowl history at 14 points, the New York Giants made history in Super Bowl XLII. The Giants entered the post-season as a wild card with a record of only 10-6. The Patriots, on the other hand, finished the season with a perfect 16-0. So, both sports oddsmakers and fans were stunned when the Giants ended up beating the undefeated New England Patriots with a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter – the last touchdown with only 35 seconds left in the game.
4 2007 Appalachian State vs. Michigan (150 to 1)
Ranked fifth entering the season, Michigan seemed unstoppable and was a huge 33 point favorite with oddsmakers in college football betting. Appalachian State stunned everyone, however, with one of college football’s biggest all-time upsets. Led by QB Armani Edwards and Wide Receiver Dexter Jackson, the Mountaineers became the first Division 1-AA team to beat a ranked Division 1-A team, defeating the Wolverines 34-32.
3 1950 World Cup – USA vs. England (500 to 1)
The United States’ unbelievable 1-0 win over England in the 1950 World Cup has become known as the “Miracle on Grass.” At the time, the English were considered the “Kings of Football’ and heavy favorites with a record of 23-4-3. The American team had lost its previous seven international matches by a combined score of 45-2 and was composed of part-time players, most of whom had other jobs to support their families.
Nobody making soccer predictions would suspect that the game’s only goal would be scored by American center forward, Joe Gaetjens, shown above.
2 Miracle on Ice (1000 to 1)
Do you believe in miracles? Everyone did after the US hockey team beat the Soviet Union 4-3 in the medal round of the 1980 Winter Olympics. The Soviet team, comprised of seasoned professional players, had won eight of the previous nine Olympic gold medals and had blown away the underdogs, American college kids, 10-3 in a pre-tournament exhibition game just days before.
1 2000 Olympic Wrestling Finals (2000 to 1)
Alexander Karelin, the three-time defending Olympic champion in wrestling, had never lost in international competition and was on a 13-year winning streak. In fact, Karelin had not given up a single point in 10 years.
An Olympic novice, Gardner’s best previous finish in international competition had been fifth place and wasn’t even expected to contend for a medal. What’s more, Karelin had beaten Gardner three years prior 5-0. But the 29-year-old from Wyoming stunned the Russian – and the world with a 1-0 victory in overtime, to win Olympic gold in the Greco-Roman heavyweight division and the number 1 spot on our list of biggest sports upsets in history.
Betting on underdog payouts? You might be curious to know: Are Sports Handicappers Legit?
The 8 Biggest Betting Underdog Winners Including a 5000/1 Beauty.
Sports is full of shocks, that is why we love it so much, the outcome is never certain regardless of who is participating.
The same applies to betting, favourites do not always win and depending on the actual sport you can get a 10/1 favourite winning or a 1/50 favourite winning, however, by the same criteria, 1/50 favourites do lose and outsiders at odds of 5000/1 emerge as the victors.
Let's start with the 5000/1 winner and that would be Leicester City winning the English Premier League back in 2016.
Leicester City win the Premier League 5000/1.
At the start of that season, the Foxes were available at those outrageous odds and a few fans did avail themselves of such an offering. It is true that most punters got on around the 100/1 mark but there was a handful that landed the bet at 5000/1 and that stands as the biggest single underdog victory in the history of betting.
To put it more in perspective, Leicester was nearly relegated the previous season surviving by the skin of their teeth and were one of the favourites to be demoted the season they actually won the title.
Rulon Gardner 2000 Olympics Gold Medal Greco-Roman wrestling 2000/1.
Not quite in the Leicester City range but 2000/1 is crazy odds and that is apparently what the American was rated at by the bookies to pick up a Gold Medal.
Gardner was a journeyman Greco-Roman wrestler, albeit a solid one but the sport was dominated by one Aleksandr Karelin who had not lost in 13 years and finished his career with 887 wins and just two losses, one of which was against Gardner.
The 2000/1 odds were pre-tournament odds and not the final odds.
USA 1980 Ice Hockey Olympic Gold Medal 1000/1.
More famously known as the miracle on Ice.
The Soviet Union were basically a shoo-in, they were absolutely dominant, they were a team full of seasoned professionals and had won 8 of the previous 9 Olympic finals.
The USA team were college students and rank 1000/1 outsiders at the start of the tournament and in fact, they got stuffed 10-3 by the Soviets in a pre-tournament match.
As the tournament unfolded the Americans grew in confidence and their odds began to tumble culminating in a 4-3 final win over the most dominant side to ever play Ice Hockey up to that moment.
Greece to win the 2004 Euros 150/1.
This was a stunner for sure because the Greeks did not have to beat just a single opponent to win Europe's elite national football tournament but some of the superstars of the game. For starters, they had to qualify out of a group that saw Spain knocked out. Then they eliminated France in the quarter-finals and lifted the trophy after beating hosts Portugal in the final.
A truly remarkable run of form defying the huge 150/1 odds.
Joe Johnson winning 1986 World Snooker Championship 150/1.
At the time the most dominant player in the sport was Steve Davies and he was the huge pre-tournament favourite to win a fourth world title. But, all the way down in the betting was the relatively unknown Johnson and those two would meet in the final where Johnson emerged the winner 18-12, at odds of 150/1.
Johnson actually returned to the final 12 months later but this time he lost 18-14 to Davies and normality was resumed.
Zimbabwe to beat Australia 100/1.
Cricket has thrown up some humdingers down the years, I am sure many Cricket fans will remember the day Kenya beat the West Indies and that was regarded by some as the biggest shock in Cricket history, however, in terms of actual odds, it was not.
Kenya were 16/1 to beat the West Indies, which is still decent odds in a two-horse race. But it shades in comparison to the 100/1 that Zimbabwe were to beat the Aussies back in 1983.
That match was Zimbabwe's first-ever official one day game and they were expected to be beaten before lunch but they knocked up an impressive 239 while the Aussies could only scrape up 236, a stunning three-run win for the debutants.
Buster Douglas to beat Mike Tyson 42/1.
Hindsight is a great thing and Douglas beating Tyson probably is not as big a shock as it should have been when you consider what was going on in Tyson's life at the time but it was a stunner in terms of betting, not many big outsiders in a two-person event win and certainly not at those sort of odds.
The average odds on Douglas winning was 40/1 but one Las Vegas bookie went out on a limb at 42/1 and the rest is history.
Europe to beat USA 2012 Ryder Cup 26/1.
Another 2 team/person event and this time the odds became available in play prior to the final day when the USA led Europe 10-4, needing just 4 wins from the final 14 ties.
There have been some massive winners in play, especially in horse racing that has seen 1000/1 winners, generally when a horse has fallen and somehow been remounted and then goes on to win.
But as is the same in football, these are one-off moments in time in a fast-moving event, not before that day's events have taken place.
Europe was available at 26/1 on the final day and mounted a stirring comeback that saw them beat their American opponents 14 ВЅ to 13 ВЅ.
Notable others.
Horse racing is renowned for throwing up some massive winners and probably the most famous big winner was Foinavon winning the 1967 Grand National. Golf is another sport with big priced winners, Trevor Immelman winning the 2008 Masters at 150/1 springs to mind as one example.
Away from Sports, there is political betting and Jeremy Corbyn to win the Labour Leadership election was initially priced at a mouth-watering 100/1.
Finally, you can always place a bet on Elvis Presley being found alive at odds of 2500/1, well, that was the price available in 2016. Never say never as they say.
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