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п»їNFL Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 9.
CFN Expert Picks.
NFL expert picks, predictions for Week 9, highlighted by Green Bay at San Francisco, Seattle at Buffalo and Baltimore at Indianapolis.
* next to the pick means the team will win, but not cover.
All the game previews and predictions to come later this week.
Thursday, November 5.
Green Bay at San Francisco.
8:20 FOX and NFL Network Line: Green Bay -7, o/u: 48.5 – Bet on this at BetMGM.
Gill Alexander, VSIN: Green Bay Patrick Conn, Longhorns Wire: Green Bay Jeff Feyerer, CFN: Green Bay Pete Fiutak, CFN: Green Bay Phil Harrison, Buckeyes Wire: San Fran Jeremy Mauss, MW Wire: Green Bay Big Game Ben Niewoehner, CFN: Green Bay Nick Shepkowski, Fighting Irish Wire: Green Bay* Scott Steehn, WinnersandWhiners: Green Bay Keith Stewart, WinnersandWhiners: San Fran Brian Stultz, Auburn Wire: Green Bay Clucko the Chicken, CFN: San Fran CONSENSUS PICK: Green Bay.
Related.
College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 10.
Sunday, November 8.
Seattle at Buffalo.
Gill Alexander, VSIN: Seattle Patrick Conn, Longhorns Wire: Seattle Jeff Feyerer, CFN: Buffalo Pete Fiutak, CFN: Buffalo Phil Harrison, Buckeyes Wire: Seattle Jeremy Mauss, MW Wire: Seattle Big Game Ben Niewoehner, CFN: Seattle Nick Shepkowski, Fighting Irish Wire: Seattle Scott Steehn, WinnersandWhiners: Buffalo Keith Stewart, WinnersandWhiners: Buffalo Brian Stultz, Auburn Wire: Seattle Clucko the Chicken, CFN: Buffalo CONSENSUS PICK: Seattle.
NFL Week 9 odds, picks: Aaron Rodgers lights up hobbled Niners, Washington's front seven steamrolls Giants.
Here's a look at some of the better wagers heading into Week 9.
The NFL trade deadline is in the rearview mirror -- it's okay if you didn't notice the largely uneventful event -- and Week 9 is set to kick off as many clubs across the league are on the verge of beginning the second half of the 2020 regular season. While the balance of power in some divisions (AFC East, AFC West) have a clear leader in the race, there are still a great number of divisions in both conferences that are bunched up. This is the week where some could begin to separate, particularly in the NFC South where the Saints are set to visit the Buccaneers. If Tampa Bay wins this NFC South showdown, they would extend its lead. If New Orleans pulls out the victory, they'd not only draw even at 6-2 but would leap over them for the division lead thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
All of those scenarios make for a great weekend of football and a great weekend for bettors looking to sink their teeth into some of these high-profile matchups. Before we jump into the Week 9 slate, Week 8 brought us a mixed bag, going 6-8 ATS/SU. While we did predict the Rams limiting Tua Tagovailoa in his debut, we did see Jared Goff committing four turnovers coming, resulting in an ATS/SU loss. We were able to squeak by with a New England cover and were right to take the points with the Steelers, who remain undefeated on the year.
With that brief recap out of the way, let's dive into these matchups for Week 9. All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Locks of the Week.
Green Bay at San Francisco.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFLN) Point spread: Green Bay -5.5.
The San Francisco 49ers continue to be mauled by the injury bug this season with the latest being quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle both set to miss extended time. Garoppolo's absence will thrust Nick Mullens into the starting spot under center. While he performed well under duress against Seattle a week ago, I don't believe he'll be able to outduel Aaron Rodgers, even if the Packers quarterback has a depleted backfield thanks to injury/COVID-related situations. Rodgers has covered 75% of his Thursday games in his career and the Packers have responded well after ATS losses. Kyle Shanahan has a strong history (3-0 ATS) against the Packers, but with limited weapons offensively, Green Bay finally snaps that streak.
Pick : Green Bay -5.5 Score prediction : Green Bay 24, San Francisco 17.
N.Y. Giants at Washington.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) Point spread: Washington -3.
Despite a 1-7 record, the Giants have kept games pretty competitive this season, owning a 5-3 ATS record heading into Week 9. They were even able to cover what was billed to be a blowout on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Buccaneers. While you have to give credit to head coach Joe Judge for keeping his team in these games, the talent level just isn't there for me to trust them in this matchup. Washington has one of the best front sevens in the entire NFL and the Giants offensive line has struggled mightily to protect Daniel Jones. When Jones is under pressure, he's bound to turn the ball over. In their previous matchup in Week 6, Washington wasn't able to apply as much pressure as you'd hope, totaling one sack and five quarterback hits. With a bye week of rest and time to prepare, I think that swings in the other direction against a Giants team playing on a short week.
Pick : Washington -3 Score prediction : Washington 17, New York 13.
Miami at Arizona.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Arizona -5.
The only team that has a better cover percentage than the Cardinals (71%) dating back to Week 5 of last season is Miami (74%). This year, the Dolphins have continued to perform well against the spread, owning a 5-1 record after failing to cover in the opener against New England. They came away with a SU win over the Rams in Week 8, but I don't like their chances against the Cardinals here. Brian Flores' club made the most of a number of Jared Goff turnovers last week, which I don't believe Kyler Murray will commit here. Tua Tagovailoa also didn't impress that much in his debut, which makes me think Murray can outpace him offensively rather quickly. The Cardinals come into this matchup covering three straight.
Pick : Arizona -5 Score prediction : Arizona 27, Miami 20.
Pittsburgh at Dallas.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Pittsburgh -13.5.
Pittsburgh has arguably the best defense in the NFL and that unit will now get to face either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush, who'll start for Dallas. The Cowboys have been unable to score more than 10 points since Dak Prescott got hurt and I don't expect that trend to change here, given the Steelers defense and lack of talent under center for Dallas. Pittsburgh leads the league in pressures per game, while the Cowboys are tied with the Egles for the most sacks allowed (13) in the past three games. The Steelers offense, meanwhile, should cruise against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in DVOA.
Pick : Pittsburgh -13.5 Score prediction : Pittsburgh 27, Dallas 10.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC) Point spread: Tampa Bay -5.5.
Rest of the bunch.
Detroit at Minnesota (-4) Pick: Minnesota -4 Score prediction: Detroit 21, Vikings 20.
Houston (-7) at Jacksonville Pick: Houston -7 Score prediction: Houston 23, Jacksonville 10.
Chicago at Tennessee (-5.5) Pick: Tennessee -5.5 Score prediction: Titans 27, Chicago 17.
Baltimore (-2.5) at Indianapolis Pick: Baltimore -2.5 Score prediction: Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 13.
Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers (-1.5) Pick: L.A. Chargers -1.5 Score prediction: L.A. Chargers 30, Las Vegas 27.
Picks Record.
Against the spread in Week 8: 6-8 ATS overall: 62-54-2.
Straight up in Week 8: 6-8 SU overall: 78-39-1.
Week 9 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks Advice: Expert tips for football pools.
After a chalky week where the public largely rode favorites to favorable results, Week 9 features some tougher calls in NFL confidence and pick 'em pools. The number-crunching experts from TeamRankings break down win odds and pick percentages for five key games to help you find the right picks for your football pool.
As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !
Review of last week's picks.
Last week, we highlighted three favorites that were coming at relative value given the large pick percentages on every favorite last week. We won’t take too much credit for suggesting that you take the top favorite, Minnesota, and slot them as your top confidence play. But San Francisco and Green Bay were two favorites that were being picked a little less by the public than other similar teams, and both got big wins.
Meanwhile, the two value gambles we highlighted for consideration in weekly contests both came close but lost in heartbreaking fashion. Tampa Bay had their chances -- and some controversy -- in the loss at Tennessee, while Denver led the Colts until Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard game-winning field goal to end the game.
Week 9 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools.
As we always caution, you shouldn't necessarily make every one of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including rules, size, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check our pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Week 9 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their respective chances to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, as both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis)
The Colts are 5-2, but all seven games have been close affairs that could have gone either way. They were coming at value for the first month of the season as the public shied away from them, but now, the public is heavily on Indianapolis (73 percent of early picks are on the Colts), as it's tied for the second-best record in the AFC entering the week.
The Steelers, though, are the Vegas favorite in this one at home. Both our models and the betting markets give the Steelers a 52-percent chance to win. Our predictive power rankings have Pittsburgh just above the Colts on a neutral field, with the difference in record explained by close-game performance (The Steelers are 1-3 in games decided by eight or less).
Cleveland Browns (at Denver)
Joe Flacco has been ruled out of this Sunday’s game against Cleveland because of a neck injury. Coincidentally or not, Flacco was very vocal in his criticism of head coach Vic Fangio’s conservatism at the end of last week's loss to the Colts. As a result, Brandon Allen, a former sixth-round pick in 2016 by the Jaguars, is set to start. The 27-year-old Allen has been waived by both Jacksonville and the Rams prior to signing with Denver after rookie quarterback Drew Lock went on IR. He has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game.
So far, the pick popularity on this one has it pretty even, with the Browns getting 53 percent of the selections from the public. Sports books that have put a line back up on the board are generally in the 2.5-point to three-point range with Cleveland as the favorite. (Prior to the Flacco news, Denver was the favorite of around 1.5 points). Right now, Cleveland is coming at value as the favorite, and where the popularity ends up will determine whether that holds true by Sunday.
Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit)
The Raiders have lost two in a row after their bye week and finally get to return home to play Detroit. One thing to keep in mind is just how infrequently the Raiders have played in Oakland this year. This is their first true home game since Sept. 15th against the Chiefs, as they have played four games on the road plus traveled to London and had a bye since then.
Oakland is a two-point favorite against the Lions and have implied win odds of 54 percent and public pick percentage of 53 percent. While that is not a huge value, you are still getting the betting favorite in a spot where almost half the public is going the other way.
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. If you take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, the joke could be on you.
The picks below are not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, they're probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries -- or if you only care about winning weekly prizes -- these highly unpopular underdogs have compelling profiles.
Jacksonville (vs. Houston in London)
Jacksonville lost its first matchup with Houston back in Week 2 when Gardner Minshew made his first career start, and it came up just short on a two-point conversion in an attempt to take a late lead. This game is a near toss-up in London, with Houston as the early 1.5-point favorite. But two-thirds of the public is going with Deshaun Watson and the Texans, which provides value in weekly contests to go opposite the public and take a team that has a realistic chance of victory.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Green Bay)
The Packers are rolling, moving to 7-1 with the road win at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Chargers ended a three-game losing streak, but not necessarily in impressive fashion, as they needed a late field goal miss to win in Chicago. Now, these teams will meet in Los Angeles, where the Chargers will nominally be the home team but the stands are likely to be filled with green shirts.
The Chargers come in as a three-point underdog with about a 41-percent chance of winning, according to our models. But only eight percent of the public is going with Los Angeles. While it’s not the best pick in all formats, rolling with the Chargers in larger weekly pools provides a lot of value given their extremely low popularity for a team with a realistic chance of winning.
Which of these five NFL Week 9 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 9, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Pittsburgh or Cleveland, or you take a chance on an upset like the Chargers or Jaguars.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LV.
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2020): 9-6-1 (+$1,090) NFL Picks (Week 2, 2020): 13-3 (+$1,910) NFL Picks (Week 3, 2020): 12-4 (+$1,230) NFL Picks (Week 4, 2020): 6-7-2 (-$675) NFL Picks (Week 5, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,770) NFL Picks (Week 6, 2020): 5-9 (-$2,365) NFL Picks (Week 7, 2020): 6-7-1 (-$580) NFL Picks (Week 8, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,210) NFL Picks (Week 9, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,945) NFL Picks (Week 10, 2020): 5-8-1 (-$825) NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935) NFL Picks (Week 12, 2020): 10-6 (+$2,395) NFL Picks (Week 13, 2020): 6-9 (-$235) NFL Picks (Week 14, 2020): 10-6 (+$1,330) NFL Picks (Week 15, 2020): 6-9-1 (+$210) NFL Picks (Week 16, 2020): 11-5 (+$1,140) NFL Picks (Week 17, 2020): 8-7-1 (+$985) NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430) NFL Picks (Week 19, 2020): 3-1 (+$285) NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$250)
NFL Picks (2020): 137-124-7 (+$3,815) NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200) NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845) NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300) NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780) NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215) NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885) NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825) NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445) NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335) NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880) NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235) NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105) NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585) If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ. Vegas betting action updated Feb. 2, 2:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Super Bowl LV Pick Chiefs at Buccaneers.
Get more free NFL picks for every game Doc's Sports.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$250) Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$400) Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 0-0 ($0) Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2020): 0-2 ($0) Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 20, 2020): -$150.
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-124-6, 52.5% (+$3,815) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 140-122-6, 53.4% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$225.
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715.
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,994-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$14,120) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,462-2,416-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Pete Prisco's NFL Week 9 picks: Patriots squeak out win over Jets, Ravens hold off Colts and more predictions.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 9, including why the Patriots will win a closer game than most expect.
I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn't fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it's time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That's sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that's up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it's the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won't matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21.
Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts.
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills.
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won't happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league's best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn't look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets.
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven't won yet. They won't win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren't a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21.
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