п»їCollege football expert picks, predictions for Week 4, 2020: Baylor covers against Kansas.
The ACC is still Clemson's to lose, but Miami (FL) can take another step towards contender status during the Week 4 college football schedule. The Hurricanes knocked off Louisville in impressive fashion last week, and now they'll look to take care of business as 11-point favorites in the Week 4 college football odds from William Hill against Florida State. That's one of six games on the ACC schedule this weekend as it joins the SEC and Big 12 as the three Power Five conferences in action in Week 4.
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Apr 20, 2019; Orlando, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Manny Diaz on the sidelines during the first half of the Miami spring game at Camping World Stadium.
The much-anticipated return of the SEC also unfolds this weekend with all 14 teams scheduled to be in action. Which Week 4 college football picks have the most value as the schedule continues to expand? Before locking anything in for this weekend's action, be sure to see the top Week 4 college football expert picks, predictions and best bets from Barrett Sallee.
Sallee is a true insider -- a CBS Sports analyst, SiriusXM host, Heisman voter and consistently one of the top CBS Sports experts picking games against the spread -- and his best bets have helped bring in huge returns. He debuted with SportsLine in 2017 and has delivered in a big way, posting a winning record in his weekly college football best bets column since that point.
He went 59-35-2 (63 percent, plus $2,037) on all his college football picks for SportsLine in 2019, and he also enters Week 4 of the 2020 college football season on a 47-24 streak on his best bets since the start of last year. Anybody who has been following him is way up.
Now, he has turned his attention to the Week 4 college football odds from William Hill and is sharing his top three best bets over at SportsLine. Get his top college football picks now.
Top Week 4 college football expert predictions.
One of Sallee's top college football picks for Week 4: He's backing Baylor (-16.5) at home against Les Miles and Kansas in a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday.
Kansas had a rough opener against Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. The Chanticleers jumped out to a commanding 28-0 lead and then cruised to an easy 38-23 win in that matchup. Kansas had three turnovers and let CCU go 8-of-14 on third down.
Baylor has had two games postponed due to COVID-19, but Sallee expects the Bears to have one of the top offenses in the Big 12, powered by a strong quarterback-running back-wide receiver trio.
"Quarterback Charlie Brewer is going to show just how much of a weapon he is, and how potent the offense can be with running back John Lovett and wide receiver Tyquan Thornton," Sallee told SportsLine. "This one will get incredibly ugly."
How to make Week 4 college football picks.
Sallee has also found two other college football picks he's high on, including a strong play in a game he says will go on "cruise control." You can only see who he's backing at SportsLine.

Bud's Bets: College football gambling picks for Week 4.
Bud's Bets is my column about college football gambling.
IвЂ™ve had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent.
My strategy has been pretty simple: Make my own numbers using a combination of public and private power ratings, plus my own manual adjustments based on personnel, injuries, and matchup knowledge.
With my numbers set, the next step is being ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers come out on Sunday or Monday. Betting before the professionals who want to wager tens of thousands per game is normally an advantage because I am getting in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. Lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my wagers are made early in the week.
Of course, if youвЂ™re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but IвЂ™m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
In 2020, there is massive uncertainty with my strategy and all CFB betting. What might have been a great bet on Sunday or Monday might all of a sudden become a horrible wager on a Thursday if key players are rules out due to a positive test of contact tracing. Granted, the risk is equal on both sides of a game, but itвЂ™s still not a comfortable feeling. I have no idea how I will do this year.
William Hill Casino is a reliable place to find odds.
Strategy thoughts in an uncertain season.
I am probably playing fewer games this season. To counteract that loss of volume, I will be doing more second-half wagering and live wagering. I post these in the comments and will track these in a separate record because I am interested in seeing the difference in return between pre- and in-game wagers.
ItвЂ™s also worth looking heavily at alternate spreads. While these are often a suckerвЂ™s bet due to increased vig, they might not be early this season. In fact, in Week 1 the Vegas lines were extremely off. Only three games were within a touchdown of the spread and only two were within a touchdown of the over/under. Alternate lines are priced based on a standard distribution of likely outcomes based on a line. But if the lines are questionable due to the lack of information due to the pandemic, and the variance is greater, the risk is potentially less and the reward greater.
Questions?
I'll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I'll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud's Bets.
Season record.
Pre-Game: 8-4 ATS, +$360.
In-game/live: 2-1 ATS, +$100.
Week 3 was quite profitable, going 5-2 ATS pre-game for +$280 and no live wagering.
I lost Duke, which was probably the wrong side even though the Blue Devils screwed around with turnovers and silly penalties for the first 40 minutes before Boston College started hitting big plays. And I lost Oklahoma State, who had QB Spencer Sanders miss most of the game after sustaining an injury in the first quarter. But that was still the wrong side.
Week 4 Wagers.
I have played two openers to date for Week 4 and will add more throughout the week.
-Texas -16.5 at Texas Tech. I have very little faith in the Texas Tech defense to keep Texas from scoring close to 50 points. I gave this one out Sunday.
Going to wedding so won't have Bud's Bets column up until tomorrow but one I think is a must take from first releases is Texas -16.5 at Ttech. вЂ” Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) September 20, 2020.
-UTEP at Louisiana Monroe Under 52 . These are two of the worst offenses in the nation. Neither push pace. A score in the high 30s or low 40s seems more likely.
-Notre Dame -16.5 at Wake Forest. I made this number over three touchdowns so this is a strong play for me. Wake Forest has issues stopping the run and Notre Dame should control the game. There is also no lookahead spot for the Irish with a bye on deck.
-Tulsa at Arkansas State -2 . I believe in Arkansas State's firepower and do not trust Tulsa's offense.
Added Thursday:
Georgia at Arkansas Under 28.5 First Half. Arkansas' tempo keeps me from playing the entire game, but I trust Georgia's defense quite a bit here to keep the Razorbacks in long down and distance while the starters are in.
Added Friday.
NC State at Virginia Tech team total under 32.5 . NC State's defense was not as bad in Week 1 as the point total it gave up.
Added Saturday.
Vanderbilt Under 3.5 (-115) Team Total 1H at Texas A&M. I think Vanderbilt's offense will be terrible and want to take advantage of it.
Mississippi State Over 20.5 Team Total at LSU. With Derek Stingley out I like my odds here of Mike Leach and KJ Costello getting it in gear.
Kentucky at Auburn -6 . I make this number more than a touchdown so I'll take the value.
Pool Picks.
Many have asked for my picks for their college pickвЂ™em pools. I am basing these on Office Football Pools, which was the most requested site by readers. I am only showing my picks on games in which my numbers show value against the provided spread. If I donвЂ™t list a game, it is safe to say I do not have an opinion on it, so flip a coin. This record will not be tracked and these are not games I am actually wagering. These are intended to help those in a pinch who need to fill out their pools and donвЂ™t have much time to do so in a given week.

College football picks, odds for ACC in Week 4: Miami, Boston College enter as sizable favorites.
Best bets and picks for all of the ACC action on tap in Week 4.
If all goes well with COVID-19 testing. we should finally see the remaining ACC teams yet to play in the 2020 season in action during what should be a very exciting Week 4 across the conference. After getting our first look at Boston College and NC State, both victorious in their conference and season-openers last week, we should finally get a chance to learn more about Commonwealth Cup rivals Virginia and Virginia Tech on Saturday. As long as those two games, Duke at Virginia and NC State at Virginia Tech, are played as scheduled, then we will enter the month of October with every ACC team on the board with at least one conference game under its belt.
So, fingers crossed, Saturday should be a moment to celebrate the players who have taken great efforts to play this fall as the final ACC teams get off the sideline and onto the field for the first time in 2020.
Let's turn our attention to the action set to take place in this momentous Week 4, with hopes to keep the momentum rolling from a successful Week 3 on the picks side of things.
No. 24 Louisville at No. 21 Pitt (-2.5): Pat Narduzzi can't be happy with the sloppiness Pitt showed in its win against Syracuse. Bad penalties, missed field goals and a couple turnovers kept what would have been a comfortable win well in reach for the Orange into the third quarter. The belief around the program is that performance was uncharacteristic of Pitt's standard, and this week should be all about correcting those issues. Which brings us to Louisville, and my concern that the defense that was exposed by Miami might not be able to correct the structural issues in just one week. This is a bad matchup with Louisville's greatest strength, its offense, being met and possibly limited by Pitt's greatest strength, its defense. The Panthers are elite at all three levels of the defense and get the tiebreaker here with a passing attack that has enough weapons to find the space that Miami was able to exploit last week. Look for freshman wide receiver Jordan Addison to shine and Pitt to improve to 3-0 on the season. Pick: Pitt -2.5.
Want more college football in your life? Listen below and subscribe to the Cover 3 College Football podcast for top-notch insight and analysis beyond the gridiron.
Duke at Virginia (-5.5): Major alarm bells are going off after Duke's loss to Boston College because it was as unfamiliar a performance that we've come to expect from David Cutcliffe's teams. Under Cut, Duke has closed talent and athleticism gaps with elite attention to detail. Saturday's home loss to Boston College was the exact opposite of that. There were bad penalties, coverage busts that resulted in explosive plays, poor open-field tackling and red-zone turnovers that kept the Blue Devils from hanging in a game that it absolutely had the talent to win. If Duke corrects those mistakes and brings better energy and focus to a Virginia team that has yet to play a game, it could cover this spread. That'd be a bad bet, though, and the right side is looking at a Duke team that can't score in the red zone, a Virginia offense with a new starting quarterback and the expected standard of a Bronco Mendenhall-coached defense and taking the under. Pick: Duke-Virginia Under 47.
Florida State at No. 12 Miami (-11): This year's edition of Miami-Florida State is overflowing with narratives. Miami is surging after nearly hanging 50 on Louisville in a win that clearly makes a case for the Canes as one of the best teams in the ACC. The Canes aren't just expected to beat Florida State, but to do so handily after the Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech at home in its 2020 opener. The start of the Mike Norvell era went just as poorly as many of the fourth-quarter collapses from the last two seasons, leaving Florida State fans with a familiar sinking feeling that's going to take more than one coaching change. Oh yeah, and speaking of Norvell? He's not even with the team after testing positive for COVID-19! There's just so much "stuff" going on here that no side feels right, and we're left to fall back on an old trusty principle: rivalry game unders. We're capitalizing on the tension of the moment and guessing that more than a few drives won't go as planned for the offenses, plus some tight butts if the game is close in the second half. Florida State is an under-friendly team with its solid defense and poor offense, so that's just another reason to ride on the total and avoid the inevitable sweat of an 11-point spread. Pick: Miami-FSU Under 56.5.
Last week: 5-2 | 2020 season: 7-6.

College Football Staff Picks Against the Spread for Week 4 Games.
Week 4 is a fascinating week, as there are three clashes between ranked teams and another three games in which a top-25 team is favored by less than a touchdown over an unranked opponent.
Below, our staff's writers and editors make their picks against the spread for Week 4, along with the standings after Week 3.
Season-long standings Max Meyer: 22-12-2 Molly Geary: 21-13-2 Tim Rohan: 17-17-2 Scooby Axson: 17-17-2 Michael Shapiro: 16-18-2 Ross Dellenger: 15-19-2 Joan Niesen: 15-19-2 Laken Litman: 14-20-2.

College Football Week 4 Picks: Early Conference Clashes Carry Big Implications.
Another college football weekend is upon is, with a compelling slate of games starting with Friday's Pac-12 showdown between Utah and USC in Los Angeles. Saturday then brings a couple key Big Ten clashesвЂ”Michigan at Wisconsin and Michigan State at NorthwesternвЂ”plus an SEC West top-25 battle featuring Auburn and Texas A&M and a marquee non-conference matchup in primetime with Notre Dame traveling to Georgia. Who will win Week 4's 12 biggest games? Our writers and editors' picks are in. To see our picks against the spread, click here.
Season-Long Standings :
Scooby Axson : 29вЂ“8 (78.4%) Max Meyer : 28вЂ“9 (75.7%) Michael Shapiro : 27вЂ“10 (73%) Molly Geary : 26вЂ“11 (70.3%) Tim Rohan : 25вЂ“12 (67.6%) Ross Dellenger : 22вЂ“15 (59.5%) Laken Litman : 21вЂ“16 (56.8%) Joan Niesen : 19вЂ“18 (51.4%)
No. 10 Utah at USC (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, FS1)
Max Meyer picks Utah : Admittedly, I havenвЂ™t been overly impressed with Utah to start the season, as the Utes have surrendered 5.5 yards per play against BYU and 5.4 against Northern Illinois. But I canвЂ™t ignore two massive advantages for the Utes: their top-tier defensive line against a USC offensive line that struggled to handle three BYU players rushing the QB this past weekend, as well as the coaching mismatch between Clay Helton and Kyle Whittingham. So while I think this is an extremely close game, those two factors ultimately give the Utes the win in Los Angeles on Friday night.
No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
Joan Niesen picks Wisconsin : This will be the fourth consecutive season the Badgers and Wolverines have faced off, and in the three prior, the home team has won. I predict that trend will continue, and not just due to Wisconsin's home-field advantage. This year's Badgers, albeit against lesser competition, have looked just as good as, if not better, the teams that won the Big Ten West in 2016 and '17. Jonathan Taylor has been something like unstoppable, and the Badgers offense is far more balanced and plays with a greater measure of ball security than it did in 2018. On the other side of the ball, its defense has been phenomenal. Meanwhile, Michigan's defense may have lost a bit of its bite from a year ago, and its offense will almost certainly struggle to get the running game going against Wisconsin, which has all but eliminated that phase of the game for its opponents thus far. That'll put pressure on Shea Patterson, and Wisconsin will ultimately win a close game.

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