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п»їCollege football picks, odds for SEC in Week 9: LSU tops Auburn, Georgia smokes Kentucky.
Halloween weekend could be scary for teams hanging on by a string in the race for division titles, most notably for the loser of the showdown between LSU and Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU freshman quarterback T.J. Finley played well in place of an injured Myles Brennan last week in a win over South Carolina. Whether it's Finley or Brennan this weekend on The Plains, it'll be a tough road test against an Auburn team that is in full-on desperation mode.
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And then . there's Gus Malzahn. The Auburn coach hasn't exactly instilled confidence in the fan base as his offense has struggled mightily to find any form of consistency. What's more, two critical and controversial calls in the Arkansas and Ole Miss games, respectively, have benefitted the Tigers. Translation: This could be a 1-4 team.
The Tiger Bowl isn't the only show in town, though. No. 8 Texas A&M will host a pesky Arkansas team that, at the very least, will provide one of the most physical matchups of the season. In Gainesville, No. 10 Florida will take the field for the first time since Oct. 10 when Missouri rolls into The Swamp.
Let's take a spin around the SEC and make some picks in this week's edition of SEC Smothered and Covered.
Appetizer: Some love for Texas A&M.
Look, I get it. There's an apprehension to believe in Texas A&M because, let's be honest, we've been burned by the Aggies before. One year after Johnny Manziel burst onto the scene . they went 4-4 in the SEC. "Oh, Kenny Hill is going to be Kenny Trill!" Well, that was over by the end of October 2014 following a 59-0 loss to Alabama.
But wait . Jimbo Fisher is in College Station. "The 2018 season is going to be the start of the most glorious stretch in program history!" Well, a nine-win season followed by an eight-win season have been . dare I say . Kevin Sumlin-ish.
Stop it. Stop with the cynicism. Let's look at what this team is this year. Not historically. Just this year. Quarterback Kellen Mond has been hard to trust during the course of his career, but he has tossed nine touchdowns through four games -- including three in the loss to Alabama. He wasn't the problem in that game; it was a defense that gave up 544 yards and 9.89 yards per play. Despite that, the Aggies still rank third in the SEC in total defense (354.5 YPG). The 5.96 yards per play average looks sub-optimal on paper, but it's only 4.72 yards per play if you take away the Alabama game. That, at worst, is "respectable."
Could Texas A&M tank? Maybe. But don't use previous seasons as reasons to doubt this year's Aggies. Fisher's current group has looked solid for the majority of the season save for a hiccup at Bama. Let's be honest, the Tide are going to cause indigestion for a lot of teams this year.
Main course: Justified Malzahn frustration.
You can count on Auburn fans getting frustrated with coach Gus Malzahn around the time that the leaves change color like you can count on the sun rising in the East. It happens every year and is justified this year.
Quarterback Bo Nix has regressed, the Tigers aren't winning battles in the trenches on either side and, save the emergence of running back Tank Bigsby and wide receiver Seth Williams bailing out Nix on a regular basis, this offense wouldn't have an identity whatsoever.
This isn't how it's supposed to be. Malzahn hired Chad Morris and gave him autonomy to run the offense after two straight seasons finishing 10th in the SEC in yards per play. Where do the Tigers rank this year? Eighth -- with a worse average than it had in each of the last two years. Malzahn literally wrote a book about explosive offenses. It appears that he not only ripped the important pages out, but threw the whole thing into a fire.
That isn't the whole story, though. It's easy to say "FIRE GUS." Is Auburn really going to do it in this financial climate? Will it be willing to part with the SEC coach who has had the most success against Alabama coach Nick Saban? Is it a guarantee that any potential new hire will have more success? The answer to all three is "nope."
Malzahn is the country's best "OK" coach. He has enough success to provide a real sense of hope, but always seems to hit road blocks at the exact moment that hope is at its highest. What's more frustrating is that, often times, he's the one who built the road block.
Desserts.
Lane Kiffin got fined $25,000 for pointing out that the SEC blew a call against Auburn that the SEC later agreed was, in fact, a blown call. Please, PLEASE pay in pennies. Stetson Bennett better ball out this week vs. Kentucky. Florida is around the corner and it doesn't sound like Kirby Smart has ruled out a quarterback change. Speaking of Florida, could the long layoff caused by COVID-19 help coach Todd Grantham figure out how to get third-down stops? He's had plenty of time to self-scout.
SEC picks for Week 9.
Odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
No. 5 Georgia (-14.5) at Kentucky: Georgia is going to keep its foot on the gas for a full four quarters knowing that the rivalry game vs. Florida is one week away. Whether it's Stetson Bennett, JT Daniels or somebody else under center, expect the playbook to be emptied. After all, the Bulldogs have to know what works and what doesn't. If it sounds like I'm considering this game a tune-up for the Bulldogs, it's because I am. Georgia's defense isn't going to feel threatened by a Kentucky offense that hasn't cracked five yards per play in four of the five games this season. Pick: Georgia (-14.5)
LSU (-3) at Auburn: This isn't the Auburn defense of old. Whether it's T.J. Finley or Myles Brennan taking the snaps, LSU will have a enough offensive success to force Auburn and quarterback Bo Nix into a semi-shootout. Running back Tank Bigsby is an absolute beast, but I don't trust the coaching staff to continue to feed Bigsby if and when it's facing a deficit in the second half. This might be close for three quarters, but LSU will pull away late for a win and cover. Pick: LSU (-3)
Ole Miss (-16.5) at Vanderbilt: Lane Kiffin is clearly upset about his $25,000 fine, which means that "old Lane" is coming out. Translation: Vandy is about to get steamrolled. The Commodores don't have any shot of slowing down the multi-dimensional Rebels running game that operates at a ludicrous speed. Yes, the Rebels have been known to turn the ball over a time or seven. But it might be able to cover the spread even if Matt Corral becomes a turnover machine again. Pick: Ole Miss (-16.5)
Mississippi State at No. 2 Alabama (-31): Here we go again with another Alabama dial-a-score game. The Crimson Tide will hang a 50-burger on the Bulldogs. That will put an enormous amount of pressure on an offense led by either quarterback KJ Costello or Will Rogers. Can Mike Leach's squad, with all of its offensive issues, even crack double-digits against a defense that has found itself over the last six quarters? Nope. No chance. Pick: Alabama (-31)
Arkansas at No. 8 Texas A&M (-12): Aggies running back Isaiah Spiller has quietly been one of the best players in the conference in 2020. That's going to present a big problem to the Razorbacks defense that is extremely well-coached, but doesn't have the high-end talent that it will take to keep the Aggies in check. Spiller and quarterback Kellen Mond will force their tempo on the Razorbacks, and Feleipe Franks and Co. won't be able to keep up. Pick: Texas A&M (-12)
What picks can you make with confidence this week, and which Big 12 underdog will pull off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams will win and cover the spread , all from a proven computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 in profit over the past four-plus seasons.
10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 9.
Fearless Predictions.
By Pete Fiutak October 30, 2020 4:58 pm.
By Pete Fiutak | October 30, 2020 4:58 pm.
What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 9? Here you go. Enjoy.
Results So Far ATS: 40-33.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. Mississippi State at Alabama.
LINE : Alabama -31 ATS PICK: Mississippi State – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Mississippi State has a defense.
It’s been totally lost in all the issues with an offense that looked so great to start the season but now can’t do anything well but give the ball away – not having RB Kylin Hill doesn’t help – but Mississippi State has the SEC’s No. 1 D.
It’s about to get hammered hard by the Alabama offense, but sort of like last week when in the No. 10 spot the call was Syracuse walking into Clemson up 46.5-0, with two weeks off to get ready, you want to give Mike Leach a 31-point lead? Bama should win comfortably, but those are way too many points, even at home.
9. Charlotte at Duke.
LINE : Duke -9.5 ATS PICK: Duke – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Fair warning – this is Power Five over Group of Five snobbery run amok.
Duke has lost a few key players, the O isn’t scoring like is should in key moments, and then there are the three biggest issues: turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. The Blue Devils have given it up 22 times in six games. However, Charlotte doesn’t have a pass rush.
Now, the 49ers do lead Conference USA in turnover margin, but that’s more because they don’t give the ball away. The two wins are against North Texas and UTEP … take the Power Fiver, even a struggling one.
8. Rice at Southern Miss.
LINE : Southern Miss -1 ATS PICK: Southern Miss – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Yeah, Southern Miss has been a big, giant dud so far, and now it’s on its third head coach in the first six games. There have been a whole lot of problems defensively, but the offense has worked just fine.
It was the first game of the season, and there’s a chance Rice is a whole lot better than it looked against Middle Tennessee. However, the Blue Raiders are right there with USM in the struggle category and they pulled off a 40-34 win in Houston. Southern Miss just needs to win at home.
7. North Carolina at Virginia.
LINE : North Carolina -7 ATS PICK: North Carolina – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Warning … we haven’t been able to get North Carolina quite right all season long. Just when it was time to jump on and enjoy the fun, the Florida State loss happened.
But this should work.
This isn’t your 2019 Virginia team. It’s still plucky, and Bronco Mendenhall isn’t any less of a head coach, but this offense simply isn’t getting it going. Don’t get fooled by the 19-14 loss at Miami – North Carolina has a whole lot more firepower against a team that lost four in a row with three of them by 17 points or more.
6. Hawaii at Wyoming.
LINE : Wyoming -1 ATS PICK: Wyoming – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Coming up next are three Big, Big Assumptions about the Big Ten. But first, here’s a medium assumption about the Mountain West.
Sort of like Fresno State showing that it really was a whole lot better than it looked against Hawaii – rolling with ease by Colorado State on Thursday night – Wyoming’s defense is going to be tougher than it showed against Nevada in the opening weekend loss.
Hawaii was able to rock Fresno State with a great defensive performance and strong day on the ground. However, 1) Wyoming’s D will soon be back to normal, especially at home, and 2) the temperature at kickoff in the greater Laramie, Wyoming metropolitan area is expected to be a robust 24 degrees.
College football odds, picks for Week 9 in ACC: Clemson chasing conference history against Boston College.
Chip Shots picks every ACC game against the spread for the weekend coming up in Week 9 of the 2020 season.
No. 1 Clemson has established what feels like a gulf between itself and the rest of the ACC. We look to the college football rankings and see evidence of a strong league in 2020 with four teams ranked in the top 15 of the AP Top 25, but in the last couple years when one of those challengers has turn into the Tigers in top form, the result has only confirmed that Clemson is on another level right now.
In fact, Clemson is on the verge of making ACC history in 2020 with another big milestone on the line this Saturday when it hosts Boston College. The Tigers have won 27 consecutive games against ACC opponents, a streak that dates back to a loss to Syracuse in 2017. With a win against the Eagles, Clemson would move into a tie with Florida State (2012-15) for the second-longest streak in league history.
That streak for the Seminoles encompassed three ACC championships, a BCS National Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance, but it was one game short of the longest streak in league history. The record of 29 consecutive victories against ACC opponents was set by Florida State when it joined the league in 1992 and proceeded to win every one of its conference games until finally being upended by Virginia in on Nov. 2, 1995.
If Clemson beats Boston College, the opportunity to match that epic ACC run by Bobby Bowden's Florida State program will be on the line in one of the biggest games of the year: at Notre Dame on Nov. 7. And the opportunity to break Florida State's 1992-95 record should the Tigers tie it in South Bend? A road to trip to Tallahassee on Nov. 21. You couldn't write a more perfect set of circumstances for Clemson to stare down ACC history.
But then again, none of those storybook settings are on the table if Clemson can't take care of business against Boston College on Saturday.
Week 9 ACC odds, picks.
Boston College at No. 1 Clemson (-31) : This will be a good chance for Clemson to show its teeth, particularly defensively as it faces the best passing attack its seen since Miami. If the Tigers avoid turnovers, they should win easily and get the cover. My lean is Clemson comes out with a little more focus and energy towards playing a complete game, bouncing back from the disjointed effort against Syracuse. Pick: Clemson -31.
Wake Forest (-11) at Syracuse: Strong performances in back-to-back weeks at home have Wake Forest carrying some momentum on the road and probably inflated this line a little bit. The Deacs are the better team and should win, but asking them to cover nearly two touchdowns feels a little steep for a potential letdown spot. I'm going to target the total instead, since both teams will play with pace and Syracuse's defense has been decimated by injuries and opt-outs. Pick: Over 59.
No. 4 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech (-20) : This is a tough spot for the Yellow Jackets, since it sure seems like Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame coaching staff have this team dialed in to an ACC Championship mindset. Notre Dame is comfortable with its identity, the defense has been playing lights out since halftime of the Florida State game and there's a relentlessness to the way the Irish take care of business once they get rolling. We were looking for some juice out of Georgia Tech last week which never materialized, so best not to try and squeeze what couldn't produce when Notre Dame is a sure thing. That said, the best play here might not be Notre Dame, but to take the under since it can rely on its defense to win and keep the best offensive plays off the tape heading into next week's game against Clemson. Pick: Under 57.
Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Louisville : There were far too many self-inflicted wounds for Virginia Tech in its loss to Wake Forest. Coaches like to talk about hidden yards, and there were not only hidden yards but lost possessions due to turnovers, penalties and other miscues. It's a gut-check week for the Hokies after one of its worst performances of the season, and I think we see much more of Khalil Herbert and less Hendon Hooker mistakes in a bounce-back road win. Pick: Virginia Tech -3.5.
Charlotte at Duke (-10): An already thin Duke offensive line took another hit with the loss of starting center Will Taylor following an injury in the loss to NC State. The Blue Devils had an off week to adjust but return to action against a tough nonconference opponent with Charlotte coming to town. Will Healy's 49ers are hoping to play spoiler to Marshall in the Conference USA title race with a 2-1 record in league play, but the goals here are more for state-wide respect as the program looks to record its first win against an ACC opponent. Duke needs a good win badly, but Charlotte will be feisty. Pick: Under 56.
Last week: 4-3 | 2020 season: 22-23.
Elite Eight.
Each week, we'll be offering these top-half power rankings for the 15-team, one-division ACC. Results matter, but won't match the standings necessarily as we look to identify the teams that have the best chance to contend for one of the top two spots (by winning percentage) and play for the conference championship in December.
1. Clemson (Last week -- 1): I do think we'll be "at the right press conference" after Clemson shows a more consistent wire-to-wire win against Boston College.
2. Notre Dame (3): On upset alert going up against Pitt, Notre Dame flexed in a big way that suggests Brian Kelly has this team peaking at the right time.
3. Miami (2): Unlike Notre Dame, Miami seems to be headed in the wrong direction. The Hurricanes are winning, but winning ugly thanks to its defense. The offense hasn't looked great since rolling Florida State more than a month ago, so until D'Eriq King and Co. start to turn it around, the Canes are going to give up some ground in the power rankings.
4. North Carolina (5): No other team in the country has two running backs averaging more than 100 yards per game. Michael Carter and Javonte Williams both rank in the top 15 nationally in rushing yards per game and have an argument as the best one-two punch in the sport. That's the key to keeping the offense balanced and limiting the pressure on Sam Howell, and a defense that's trying to get healthy and more experienced in this late stage of the season.
5. Boston College (8): I sold my Boston College stock too early. Phil Jurkovec and the Eagles' passing attack is legit, and Jeff Hafley's impressive debut continues after stomping Georgia Tech over the weekend.
6. Wake Forest (NR): Nick Andersen was the story of the weekend after the former walk-on had three interceptions in the win against Virginia Tech, but just as impressive has been the way Sam Hartman and this Wake Forest offense continue to play at a high level over the last couple of games.
7. Virginia Tech (4): The Hokies are better than their performance at Wake Forest, but now it's a test of focus and coaching to return to the form that had us talking about ACC Championship contention even if that goal is likely slipping away after the loss in Winston-Salem.
8. NC State (6): The Wolfpack have a week off to sort out their quarterback situation. Bailey Hockman stepped back under center following the injury to Devin Leary, but freshman Ben Finley (younger brother of former NC State quarterback Ryan Finley) also saw some action against North Carolina. We'll see how both play and how the offense looks in Week 10 against Miami, a game that will set the stage and stakes for the conclusion to the 2020 regular season.
Dropped from the rankings: Pitt (7)
College Football Week 9 Picks: Auburn-LSU, Michigan-Notre Dame and More.
Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports.
Week 9 of the college football season brings another top-10 showdown in Death Valley, as LSU hosts Auburn, while Ohio State hosts its toughest test yet in Wisconsin. At night, Michigan hosts Notre Dame in a primetime showdown, with the Wolverines looking to avoid back-to-back losses after last week's defeat in Happy Valley. Who will win those games and nine more of Week 9's best? Our writers and editors have made their picks.
Season-Long Standings.
Lorenzo Arguello: 18–6 (75%) Max Meyer : 72–25 (74.2%) Michael Shapiro : 71–26 (73.2%) Molly Geary : 68–29 (70.1%) Laken Litman : 68–29 (70.1%) Ross Dellenger : 63–34 (64.9%)
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
Laken Litman picks Ohio State : This was supposed to be a top-10 matchup, but then Wisconsin was stunned by Illinois last week in a one-point road loss. The Badgers still have the nation’s No. 1 defense, but haven’t faced anyone as dangerous or talented as QB Justin Fields, who leads the Big Ten with 22 touchdowns to just one interception. Meanwhile Ohio State’s second-ranked defense, which is holding opponents to 2.5 yards per rush, is gearing up for its shot at Jonathan Taylor. The major question for the Buckeyes now as they enter the midway point of the season at 7–0 is can they avoid a Purdue-style upset? The Boilermakers shocked then-No. 2 Ohio State, 49–20, this time last year. And Wisconsin is coming off a bad loss looking to prove itself against the best team in the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes haven’t lost at home since September 2017 (Oklahoma) and haven’t lost a conference game at home since November 2015 (Michigan State).
No. 5 Oklahoma at Kansas State (12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Molly Geary picks Oklahoma : K-State's defense, which ranks fifth nationally in passing yards allowed per game (152.5), could make things tricky for Jalen Hurts & Co. through the air, but they're much more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 102nd nationally with 195.2 yards per game. Oklahoma has a mobile QB and one of the nation's most potent rushing attacks, so expect its offense to take advantage. But even if the Wildcats are able to muck things up a bit, they simply don't have the offense to keep up with the Sooners here.
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Ross Dellenger picks LSU : QB Joe Burrow spoke the truth after the Tigers' 36–13 win at Mississippi State last week. He said that if LSU plays against Auburn like it did against the Bulldogs, it'll lose. Burrow's squad shouldn't need any motivation for a home game against Auburn, the only team standing in the way of a No. 1-verse-No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa with Alabama on Nov. 9. The Tigers get a bye after the AU game before getting the Crimson Tide.
No. 6 Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Max Meyer picks Michigan State : Georgia and Wisconsin have dropped from the undefeated ranks in consecutive weeks—could Penn State be next? Michigan State is coming off a bye week, but before that, the Spartans lost in embarrassing fashion at the hands of Wisconsin. Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off an enormous home win over Michigan. Looking at these teams’ statistical profiles, an upset doesn’t make much sense. However, how often does college football make sense? If Michigan State wants to salvage its season, it’s going to need to retain the Land Grant Trophy at the end of this rivalry game, which the Spartans have won in five of the past six meetings. Both of these defenses are outstanding, but I trust senior quarterback Brian Lewerke to come up with more plays than his counterpart Sean Clifford, a sophomore in a tough environment. I’ll go with a Sparty upset here.
USA TODAY Sports college football staff picks for Week 9.
USA TODAY Sports' Paul Myerberg breaks down the latest Amway Coaches Poll. USA TODAY.
The Big Ten game of the season looks a little different after the conference's opening weekend.
Saturday's anticipated showdown between Ohio State and Penn State was expected to be decisive in the race for the East division and determine to a College Football Playoff berth.
The third-ranked Buckeyes still seem on track for their biggest goals with Michigan now their biggest contender. The No. 17 Nittany Lions, meanwhile, face the prospect of being knocked completely out of the race after losing to Indiana last week. With the game at home, however, Penn State has an opportunity to change its outlook. A bounce-back win would throw open the race completely.
Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave (17) makes a touchdown catch while being defended by two Penn State players during their game in 2019 at Ohio Stadium. (Photo: Greg Bartram/USA TODAY Sports)
The Big 12 could some clarity to its picture this weekend. No. 6 Oklahoma State and No. 16 Kansas State are both are unbeaten in league play ahead of respective matchups against Texas and West Virginia. With wins Saturday, the Cowboys and Wildcats would further solidify their lead and eliminate the two-loss Longhorns and Mountaineers. Losses would throw up the door to chaos with Iowa State and Oklahoma also in the picture.
Are there any surprises possible this week? The SEC could offer some. No. 5 Georgia and No. 9 Florida will meet next week for their annual showdown. Both must avoid looking ahead with the Bulldogs traveling to Kentucky and Gators hosting Missouri after two weeks off due to COVID-19 complications.
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