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п»їCollege Football Week 9 Picks: Auburn-LSU, Michigan-Notre Dame and More.
Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports.
Week 9 of the college football season brings another top-10 showdown in Death Valley, as LSU hosts Auburn, while Ohio State hosts its toughest test yet in Wisconsin. At night, Michigan hosts Notre Dame in a primetime showdown, with the Wolverines looking to avoid back-to-back losses after last week's defeat in Happy Valley. Who will win those games and nine more of Week 9's best? Our writers and editors have made their picks.
Season-Long Standings.
Lorenzo Arguello: 18–6 (75%) Max Meyer : 72–25 (74.2%) Michael Shapiro : 71–26 (73.2%) Molly Geary : 68–29 (70.1%) Laken Litman : 68–29 (70.1%) Ross Dellenger : 63–34 (64.9%)
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
Laken Litman picks Ohio State : This was supposed to be a top-10 matchup, but then Wisconsin was stunned by Illinois last week in a one-point road loss. The Badgers still have the nation’s No. 1 defense, but haven’t faced anyone as dangerous or talented as QB Justin Fields, who leads the Big Ten with 22 touchdowns to just one interception. Meanwhile Ohio State’s second-ranked defense, which is holding opponents to 2.5 yards per rush, is gearing up for its shot at Jonathan Taylor. The major question for the Buckeyes now as they enter the midway point of the season at 7–0 is can they avoid a Purdue-style upset? The Boilermakers shocked then-No. 2 Ohio State, 49–20, this time last year. And Wisconsin is coming off a bad loss looking to prove itself against the best team in the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes haven’t lost at home since September 2017 (Oklahoma) and haven’t lost a conference game at home since November 2015 (Michigan State).
No. 5 Oklahoma at Kansas State (12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Molly Geary picks Oklahoma : K-State's defense, which ranks fifth nationally in passing yards allowed per game (152.5), could make things tricky for Jalen Hurts & Co. through the air, but they're much more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 102nd nationally with 195.2 yards per game. Oklahoma has a mobile QB and one of the nation's most potent rushing attacks, so expect its offense to take advantage. But even if the Wildcats are able to muck things up a bit, they simply don't have the offense to keep up with the Sooners here.
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Ross Dellenger picks LSU : QB Joe Burrow spoke the truth after the Tigers' 36–13 win at Mississippi State last week. He said that if LSU plays against Auburn like it did against the Bulldogs, it'll lose. Burrow's squad shouldn't need any motivation for a home game against Auburn, the only team standing in the way of a No. 1-verse-No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa with Alabama on Nov. 9. The Tigers get a bye after the AU game before getting the Crimson Tide.
No. 6 Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Max Meyer picks Michigan State : Georgia and Wisconsin have dropped from the undefeated ranks in consecutive weeks—could Penn State be next? Michigan State is coming off a bye week, but before that, the Spartans lost in embarrassing fashion at the hands of Wisconsin. Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off an enormous home win over Michigan. Looking at these teams’ statistical profiles, an upset doesn’t make much sense. However, how often does college football make sense? If Michigan State wants to salvage its season, it’s going to need to retain the Land Grant Trophy at the end of this rivalry game, which the Spartans have won in five of the past six meetings. Both of these defenses are outstanding, but I trust senior quarterback Brian Lewerke to come up with more plays than his counterpart Sean Clifford, a sophomore in a tough environment. I’ll go with a Sparty upset here.
College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 9: Advanced computer model loving Penn State, Cal.
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated every Week 9 college football game 10,000 times.
No. 13 Wisconsin has a chance to do to No. 3 Ohio State what Illinois did last week. Wisconsin fell out of the College Football Playoff picture after losing to the unranked Fighting Illini, and the unbeaten Buckeyes would face an uphill climb back into contention should Wisconsin upset them. The Badgers are 14.5-point underdogs in the latest college football odds, one of the largest college football spreads of the week involving a ranked team. Wisconsin vs. Ohio State is one of five Big Ten games involving ranked teams on Saturday. Unbeaten Penn State puts its No. 6 ranking on the line when the Nittany Lions visit Michigan State. James Franklin and company are favored by almost a touchdown, according to the current college football lines. No. 17 Minnesota (-16.5) takes on visiting Maryland, No. 20 Iowa (-10) heads to Northwestern, and No. 19 Michigan hosts No. 8 Notre Dame in Ann Arbor. Notre Dame vs. Michigan is a pick'em, which means neither team is favored in the latest college football odds. Before locking in any Week 9 college football picks for these matchups or any others, consult the college football predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen huge returns. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread.
One of the Week 9 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 6 Penn State (-6.5) covers on the road against Michigan State.
The Nittany Lions picked up a huge 28-21 win over Michigan last week, keeping them undefeated and in the mix for the Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff bid. They'll have to keep style points in mind, however, with five other undefeated teams currently sitting in front of them. Michigan State, meanwhile, is just 2-5 against the spread and ranks 12th in the Big Ten in total offense. The model projects that the Spartans muster just 11 points, while Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford throws for well over 200 yards as the Nittany Lions cover in over 60 percent of simulations.
Another one of the 2019 Week 9 college football predictions from the model: California stays within the spread as a 21.5-point road underdog when the Golden Bears face No. 12 Utah.
Cal is 4-3 this season, but just 1-3 in the Pac-12 and riding a three-game losing streak. Quarterback Chase Garbers has thrown for 952 yards and eight touchdowns, while running back Christopher Brown Jr. has 480 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Golden Bears have been consistent on offense all season, averaging 324 yards per game, but it's Cal's defense that will be a difference against Utah, as the Golden Bears allow just 18.7 points per game.
The model projects that Cal holds Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley to under 200 passing yards. That helps the Golden Bears cover the spread over 70 percent of the time.
That's why the model has the Cardinal covering in well over 60 percent of simulations. Meanwhile, the over (52.5) has all the value since it hits 50 percent of the time.
The model also has made the call on every other FBS matchup in Week 9, including the monster SEC showdown between No. 2 LSU and No. 9 Auburn. It also knows a line in another game is way off, saying one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You need to see its college football picks before locking in any of your own.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which line is Vegas way off on? Check out the latest Week 9 college football odds below, and then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,200 in profit over the past four seasons.
College football picks, schedule: Predictions against the spread for the key top 25 games in Week 9.
A closer look at the top games on the slate in Week 9 of the 2019 college football season.
Past the midway point of the 2019 season, there are three top-25 matchups ahead in Week 9 that could shake the foundation of the sport as we head toward the first College Football Playoff Rankings release in about 10 days. In fact, it has already started with Kansas State upsetting No. 5 Oklahoma, a 24-point favorite in the game .
There's a key SEC West battle in the afternoon, which also sees Penn State hitting the road in tough conditions at Michigan State. In the evening is another test for Notre Dame as it travels to the Big House to face Michigan in the night cap. Alabama will also be looking to beat Arkansas despite the fact that it will be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones. And those are just the five key games to watch on Saturday. For more, check out our complete Week 9 viewer's guide .
With action starting early in the day and continuing late into the night, let's take a look at the biggest games on the schedule Saturday along with our college football picks and predictions for what will transpire in those contests. Our CBS Sports college football experts have picked every game both straight up and against the spread, giving you ample opportunity to decide how to make your picks ahead of kickoff.
All times Eastern.
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) – Noon on Fox: I don't think last week's loss to Illinois says anything about Wisconsin being a mirage. That's just the kind of loss that can happen to anybody. Just ask Ohio State about its road trip to Purdue last year. The thing is that I thought Ohio State was a lot better than Wisconsin before last week happened. I think Ohio State is a lot better than just about everybody else in the country save for a handful of teams. Wisconsin isn't one of them. I'm not saying Wisconsin can't make a game of this, but I think Ohio State's more likely to win by three touchdowns than fewer than two. Pick: Ohio State (-14.5) -- Tom Fornelli.
Week 9 college football picks against the spread.
Week 9 college football picks against the spread wouldn’t be complete without a look at the biggest game of the day: 1-6 UConn vs. 1-6 UMass. If Top 25 action, best bets, and upset alerts are more your thing, that’s covered, too.
Week 9 college football picks.
Best Bet: No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5, 49.5 over/under), noon ET (FOX)
Wisconsin spoiled what was supposed to be a top-10 matchup against Ohio State with one of the most shocking losses of the college football season last week. But that’s not why Ohio State is the pick here.
It was where Wisconsin lost last week, at Illinois, that should be of concern for the Badgers. After fattening up on a steady diet of five straight home games, Wisconsin hit the road and laid an egg.
That was at Illinois, now just imagine what awaits Wisconsin in Columbus against an Ohio State squad that is arguably the most complete team in the country.
The Wisconsin defense, which leads the nation in points per game (7.6), must now step out of their comfort zone and face an offense that ranks fourth in points per game (49.7). The Ohio State defense is also no joke, trailing only Wisconsin in points allowed per game (8.0).
The 14.5-point number would be more of a slam dunk if the line was an even 14. Having said that, Ohio State is 6-1 against the spread this season with their smallest margin of victory coming by 24 points. Hopefully, enough action comes in on Wisconsin to drive this line to 14 points or lower.
Either way, this could be a statement game for Ohio State.
Pick : Ohio State -14.5.
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-24.5, 57.5 over/under) at Kansas State Wildcats, noon ET, (ABC)
Kansas State does enough of the little things well to hang around with Oklahoma – relatively speaking.
The Wildcats rank fifth in the nation in pass defense (152.5 yards per game) and 10 th in opponent passer rating (105.9). That could limit some of the damage Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts might inflict upon them.
Special teams won’t kill Kansas State, as the Wildcats are nailing 87.5 percent of their field goals. Kansas State ranks 16 th in the nation with 45.5 yards per punt – which will also help in lengthening the field against a dangerous Oklahoma offense.
A huge area of concern for the Kansas State defense is in the running game, where the numbers aren’t as pretty. However, if Oklahoma is running the ball and keeping the clock moving, that’s good news. It means they are chewing up time when having to cover such a large spread.
UCF Knights (-10.5, 61.5 over/under) at Temple Owls, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Temple defense at home has been so kind to us this year. Do they have another cover in them?
As home underdogs, the Owls own outright wins over two ranked opponents this season, beating then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis.
UCF was ranked at one point this season, too, but the road has been a house of horrors for the Knights, losing at Pitt and Cincinnati. The Knights have also failed to cover in their last four games, perhaps seeing injuries and unrealistic expectations catch up to them before the oddsmakers have.
Upset alert: No. 15 Texas (-1.5, 58.5 over/under) at TCU, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Texas defense is so bad and so injured that it allowed 48 points and 569 yards of total offense against lowly Kansas last week, needing a last-second field goal to escape what would’ve been an all-time embarrassing home loss.
The TCU offense isn’t great, but it could have a decent enough day against such a bad defense. On the other side of the ball, the Horned Frogs are allowing just 281.0 yards per game, which puts them at 10 th in the country.
This is one of those lines that is so low, the bookmakers are begging you to take Texas.
Don’t take the bait.
Bonus bet: UConn Huskies (-10, 61.5 over/under) at UMass Minutemen, 3:30 p.m. ET (Flo Sports/NESN)
Anytime two of the worst teams in college football play another, it’s worth a small wager just for fun. UConn has no business being a 10-point favorite over anyone, let alone on the road – no matter how bad UMass might be.
UMass ranks dead last in points allowed per game (49.9), with UConn (38.1) only five spots from the bottom. Things don’t much better on offense, with UMass (20.6) and UConn (16.7) both among the worst teams in the country in points per game.
While UConn has played the much tougher schedule of the two teams, 10 points is an awful lot for a team that’s only win this season was a 3-point victory over FCS school Wagner.
College Football Picks: Week 9 Predictions for Every Game.
Although an upset loss removed the possibility of two Top 10 matchups in Week 9, the upcoming slate still boasts a trio of showdowns between Top 20 teams.
Second-ranked LSU will host No. 9 Auburn in a pivotal SEC West battle. Elsewhere, third-ranked Ohio State welcomes No. 13 Wisconsin, and No. 9 Notre Dame heads to 19th-ranked Michigan.
College Football Playoff dreams may be crushed this weekend.
The predictions are initially organized based on AP ranking in ascending order. The remainder are listed chronologically after a preview of the five best games between unranked teams. All odds are courtesy of Caesars and accurate as of Tuesday.
AP Nos. 25-21.
No. 25 Wake Forest (idle)
For the first time in program history, Wake Forest has six-plus wins in four straight seasons. The Demon Deacons still have an outside shot at winning the Atlantic Division, though Clemson stands as the clear ACC favorite.
No. 24 Arizona State at UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET (ASU -4)
UCLA has started to run effectively, but ASU ranks 18th nationally with 3.1 yards allowed per carry. Unless the Sun Devils falter in that area and Jayden Daniels has a nightmare game as a passer, this shouldn't be especially close. UCLA has ceded 2,187 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air in only seven games.
Prediction : Arizona State 31, UCLA 21.
Oklahoma State at No. 23 Iowa State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ISU -10.5)
Last week, turnovers again ruined Oklahoma State. Baylor turned a fumble recovery into the game-sealing score. The Cowboys now have six straight games with multiple giveaways, and expecting a correction on the road against Iowa State seems unwise.
Prediction : Iowa State 38, Oklahoma State 27.
No. 22 Boise State (idle)
Gone are the dreams of an undefeated season. However, the Broncos are still unbeaten in Mountain West play and remain a key contender for the Group of Five's berth in a New Year's Six bowl.
No. 21 Appalachian State at South Alabama, Noon ET (App State -25)
Since scoring 21 points at Nebraska and 37 against Jackson State, South Alabama hasn't cracked 17 points. Short of a dramatic trend reversal, the Jaguars won't be a threat Saturday. Appalachian State should improve to 7-0.
Prediction : Appalachian State 42, South Alabama 17.
AP Nos. 20-16.
No. 20 Iowa at Northwestern, Noon ET (Iowa -10.5)
Iowa is a pretty boring team, but the Hawkeyes still win. Northwestern, on the other hand, so thoroughly lacks execution on offense that it's frustrating to watch. While strange things are possible in a slow-paced game, picking the Wildcats against a defense allowing the 10th-fewest yards per game would be an odd choice.
Prediction : Iowa 26, Northwestern 14.
No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 19 Michigan, 7:30 p.m. ET (Michigan -1)
For prediction, see No. 8 Notre Dame.
No. 18 Cincinnati (idle)
Other than an understandable loss to Ohio State, Cincinnati has a quintet of double-digit-point wins along with a victory over UCF. Now that Boise State has dropped a game, the Bearcats are fully deserving of their place as the G5's front-runner in the NY6 chase.
Maryland at No. 17 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ET (Minnesota -17)
Throw out the beatdown of Rutgers, and Maryland has allowed 330-plus passing yards in three straight competitive games. Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan, meanwhile, has posted no fewer than 8.8 yards per attempt in any game this season.
Prediction : Minnesota 38, Maryland 17.
AP Nos. 15-11.
No. 15 Texas at TCU, 3:30 p.m. ET (Texas -1)
Texas seems to be throwing a bunch of defensive calls at the metaphorical wall and seeing that nothing is sticking. However, TCU's inconsistent aerial attack will be the Horned Frogs' undoing because the Longhorns can sell out on stopping the run.
Prediction : Texas 36, TCU 24.
No. 14 Baylor (idle)
Are we going to see Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game? The Bears are 7-0 and host Texas in the penultimate week of the regular season. If they reach that matchup at 9-1, the showdown could decide Oklahoma's opponent in Arlington.
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State, Noon ET (Ohio State -14)
For prediction, see No. 3 Ohio State.
Cal at No. 12 Utah, 10 p.m. ET (Utah -19)
Since Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury, Cal has trudged to 13.7 points per game. The bright side is the defense has allowed an average of only 20.7 in that stretch, but Utah's 13th-ranked unit is even stingier. The Utes probably won't win in a blowout, but it won't necessarily be uncomfortable.
Prediction : Utah 24, Cal 10.
Washington State at No. 11 Oregon, 10:30 p.m. ET (Oregon -14)
Perhaps the 31-point rout of Colorado has provided a spark for Washington State's defense, but the unit had allowed 500-plus yards in three straight games. We'll be late adopters if there is real improvement post-Tracy Claeys' resignation. Justin Herbert should be headed for another three-touchdown day.
Prediction : Oregon 34, Washington State 24.
AP Nos. 10-6.
No. 10 Georgia (idle)
Though a rain-filled evening didn't help, Georgia's offense struggled again last weekend. The Bulldogs desperately need to clean up that side of the ball before challenging Florida on Nov. 2. At 6-1, Georgia cannot afford another loss if it wants to repeat as SEC East champs, let alone reach the College Football Playoff.
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU, 3:30 p.m. ET (LSU -11.5)
For prediction, see No. 2 LSU.
No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 19 Michigan, 7:30 p.m. ET (Michigan -1)
Moral victories are not valuable, but the second-half fight Michigan showed in the loss at Penn State was at least encouraging. If the Wolverines can prevent back-breaking explosive plays from happening in the passing game, they can hold off Notre Dame at home.
Prediction : Michigan 24, Notre Dame 22.
No. 7 Florida (idle)
After playing seven straight Saturdays ― and going 6-1 ― Florida finally has an idle weekend. The Gators could effectively secure the SEC East crown with a victory over Georgia in Jacksonville.
No. 6 Penn State at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ET (Penn State -6)
In James Franklin's tenure, Penn State is 1-4 against Michigan State. Until the Spartans looked completely anemic at Wisconsin, it seemed an upset was possible. But this is a miserable MSU offense, and the defense ceded 931 combined yards to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Not even the team's strength is doing well lately.
Prediction : Penn State 27, Michigan State 16.
AP Nos. 5-1.
No. 5 Oklahoma at Kansas State, Noon ET (Oklahoma -24)
Kansas State hasn't cracked five yards per play in the last three games. Barring a truly spectacular defensive day ― and there's no evidence that is possible ― Oklahoma will cruise to another win.
Prediction : Oklahoma 48, Kansas State 14.
Boston College at No. 4 Clemson, 7:30 p.m. ET (Clemson -34)
Trevor Lawrence is battling a sophomore slump. No question about it. Clemson's defense is bailing him out, though, holding six of seven opponents to 14 points or fewer. Boston College has a terrific running game, but Lawrence should still be effective enough opposite a defense allowing 8.2 yards per pass to lift the Tigers.
Prediction : Clemson 42, Boston College 14.
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State, Noon ET (Ohio State -14)
So far, Ohio State has allowed a paltry 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. If Wisconsin fails to run successfully, the possibility of an upset is extremely low. The Badgers can frustrate Justin Fields, but Illinois showed the value of explosive plays. And few offenses are more capable of breaking off huge gains than Ohio State's.
Prediction : Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 17.
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU, 3:30 p.m. ET (LSU -11.5)
Similar to the outlook of Auburn's trip to Florida, the burden on freshman quarterback Bo Nix to carry the offense will probably be too heavy. Auburn's offensive line tends to struggle against good/great competition, and LSU has an excellent run defense. Trusting Joe Burrow over Nix is the safe, but probably correct, choice.
Prediction : LSU 30, Auburn 17.
Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama, 7 p.m. ET (Alabama -32.5)
Since the Crimson Tide will be without Tua Tagovailoa (ankle), they're likely to lean pretty heavily on the running game. While that's technically better for the Razorbacks than defending Tagovailoa and Co., their last two opponents have totaled 628 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Prediction : Alabama 42, Arkansas 14.
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